Grass is historically his weakest surface winning 50% of his matches (75% on clay and 64% on hard) on it. While the biggest upset in terms of seeding, it is not as unlikely as fans might think. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas was the most surprising. On paper, it might seem that the first round upset of French Open runner-up and No. After the first four rounds of the tournament, here are some of the most surprising upsets. At the French, only five of the total 32 seeds were less than 60% favorites in the first round compared to 12 seeds at Wimbledon. It also greatly advantages certain playing styles (big servers, volleyers, slicers) more so than other surfaces. There was also no grass court season held in 2020 so some players were playing their first match on grass in over two years. Especially this year with so few warm-up tournaments between the French and Wimby, players weren’t as fine tuned for the sharp transition from the slowest to the fastest surface. Grass courts, as opposed to hard and clay, likely have the most upsets as it is the most unfamiliar for the players. Using the initial simulation, we can quantify exactly how rare certain upsets are rather than just looking at the ranking differential between the players.
Having a draw with 128 players, there is pretty much guaranteed to be some big upsets.
Obviously, all of their current probabilities to win the title will be greater than their original as there are only 8 players remaining (3 rounds) as opposed to the initial 128 players (7 rounds). Now that Djokovic has reached the quarters, along with 7 other players, we can run a new simulation to give updated probabilities for each of the remaining players to advance. 1 seed Novak Djokovic had a 67% chance of reaching the quarterfinals given that he had to win four matches to get there. For example, at the start of the tournament, No. At the start of the tournament, we simulated the original draw to give all players a probability not only to win the whole tournament but also to reach a specific round. With 120 singles matches completed on the men’s side of the draw, that provides a great opportunity to look back at some of the best matches so far as well as look forward to the exciting matchups to come in the final weekend.
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